300 WTPA41 PHFO 310258 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Hone is beginning to feel the influence of the broad upper level low located over the western portion of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands. New convection has been developing over Hone's outer bands during the day today, but the low level circulation center remains exposed. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC have remained at 2.0/30 kt, with CIMSS ADT and AiDT and DPRINT ranging from 22 to 31 kt. The initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt. The previous west-northwest motion has become quite erratic over the last several hours. When filtering out the short-term wobbles, the longer term motion for this advisory is 290/5. The upper low is expected to soon impart a more northward motion on the low level circulation center of Hone, with global models showing these features becoming well-aligned in the next 24 to 36 hours. After that, the steering flow around the now vertically stacked low will become light, and Hone will move quite slowly west-northwest. A more northwest motion is expected to resume as deep layer ridging is expected to build to the northeast and east of the tropical cyclone. For the first 48 hours, the forecast remains towards the center of the relatively well clustered guidance. Beyond that, the forecast remains on the left side of the guidance with little change from the previous forecast. The SHIPS guidance continues to show rapid weakening in the deep layer shear in the next couple of days, from 35 to 40 kt analyzed by CIMSS currently to less than 10 kt by 36 hours. In addition, sea surface temperatures are from 28 to 29C along the track for the next couple of days. Assuming that persistent convection can become reestablished over the low-level center, as indicated by some of the global models, this should give Hone an opportunity for redevelopment. The global models remain insistent that Hone will maintain tropical characteristics after merging with the aforementioned upper low. There remains considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, especially beyond 48 hours where the guidance spread is large. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains close to the IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 22.0N 176.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 22.8N 176.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 24.2N 177.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 25.3N 178.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.0N 179.9E 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 26.5N 178.9E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 27.4N 178.2E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 29.6N 175.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 32.3N 173.8E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard