Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2037

   Mesoscale Discussion 2037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

   Areas affected...central Illinois into Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302041Z - 302315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce brief hail or localized
   strong gusts over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Conditions continue to destabilize ahead of a cold
   front draped across MO, IL, and into northern IN. Scattered storms
   have been ongoing over much of the St. Louis area, with sporadic
   strong cores noted on radar.

   Given the increasing convergence along the front, unstable and moist
   air mass, and continued heating, additional storms are likely to
   develop this afternoon. Shear is weak across the region, well south
   of the positive-tilt upper trough to the north. Area VWPs indicate
   little shear, but modest westerlies do exist across northern areas
   toward northern IN.

   Capping is non-existent due to cool 700 mb temperatures, and this
   will make it easy for storms to increasing in coverage and likely
   overturn the regional air mass through evening. While relatively
   disorganized/multicellular, marginal hail may occur in the pulsing
   updrafts, with locally strong downdrafts.

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39389089 39798998 40338901 41238723 41758632 41688596
               41388570 40758569 39828671 38918825 38048975 38169073
               38709111 39389089