000 WTPA41 PHFO 301432 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Like last night, convection bloomed across the eastern flank of Hone's low level circulation center (LLCC) between 06Z and 12Z. This recent convection partially obscured the LLCC initially, but has been sheared eastward just enough to make this feature discernible in satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates were 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and JTWC, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. Unfortunately, the ASCAT pass missed Hone entirely. The 1110Z objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS of 32 kt remains close to the subjective estimates, and the intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, maintaining Hone's status as a tropical depression. Hone began a slight turn to the north last evening and continues to make this turn with the 12Z cycle. The initial motion of 290 degrees at 7 kt is in line with the previous forecast track and little change was introduced to the current forecast track through 24 hours. As before, forecast track philosophy revolves around likely interaction of the LLCC with an upper low north of Midway Atoll. This upper low is forecast to dig southward over the next few days and Hone is expected to be pulled northwestward toward it. After Hone's LLCC and the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected to resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific. The track guidance envelope through 72 hours remains rather tight, but has shifted to the right between 24 and 72 hours, possibly predicting a stronger interaction with the upper low.The forecast track for this cycle has been adjusted a bit to the right of the previous one from 24 to 72 hours, with little change introduced outside of this window. Combined with the current motion, this results in a forecast track which depicts a steeper climb northward in the mid term. Hone needs to maintain a shroud of organized deep convection for reintensification, and the recent nocturnal bloom was certainly a good start. If Hone manages to survive the 45 kt of westerly shear it is seeing now, there may be an opportunity for reintensification. However, in spite of a bit of a boost from last cycle, intensity models remain somewhat bearish on this possibility. Only HAFS, representing the high side of the envelope, takes Hone back to hurricane/typhoon strength. HWRF depicts Hone as a minimal tropical storm through 72 hours before granting a bit of strengthening. HCCA gradually strengthens Hone to 50 kt at 72 hours, then tries to dissipate it shortly after 120 hours. Global models generally try to do the same. In other words, intensity guidance varies widely after 48 hours as each model or ensemble copes with the uncertainty associated with Hone's interaction with the upper low north of Midway Atoll. The current intensity forecast closely follows the previous one, which lies within the wide guidance spread. Following our track and intensity forecast, Hone should cross the International Dateline as a mid-range tropical storm on Sunday, Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.8N 174.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 22.4N 175.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 23.7N 176.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 24.8N 177.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 178.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.6N 179.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 27.1N 177.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 28.7N 174.2E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 31.3N 171.1E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell