000 WTPA41 PHFO 300259 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Thu Aug 29 2024 Hone has been nearly devoid of deep convection since about 2300 UTC, and the low level circulation center has been fully exposed for the last several hours. ASCAT-C at 2051 UTC sampled 30 kt winds to the north of the low level center. The subjective intensity estimates were 2.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and 2.5 from SAB. The objective Dvorak estimates have also been trending downward. Thus the intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and Hone is a tropical depression once again. Both the track and the intensity forecast remain quite challenging for mischievous Hone. Hone has been persistently moving west-northwest on its trek across the central Pacific, and the motion for this advisory was 280/7. However, a low aloft, seen in water vapor imagery about 270 nm north of Midway Atoll, is expected to dig generally southward over the next couple of days. Hone is expected to be pulled northwestward toward this feature in about 48 hours and get entangled with the upper circulation. After Hone and the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected to resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific, although the models differ in forward speed toward the end of the forecast period. Despite the rather complex interaction among the two features, there is decent agreement in the model guidance through the next 3 days or so, and the forecast continues to lie near the TVCN consensus guidance. All of this assumes, of course, that renewed deep convection in a day or two will allow Hone to gain latitude as a deeper system once again. If Hone manages to survive its current battle with 45 kt of westerly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, there appears to be an opportunity for reintensification. The global models and SHIPS guidance suggest that the strong shear currently over Hone will eventually relax, and sea surface temperatures at that time will also be supportive of strengthening. The global models show deep convection reestablishing a warm core with Hone over the west Pacific in a few days, once the lower and upper features merge. However, there remains considerable spread among the guidance in how much Hone is able to restrengthen after that happens. The intensity forecast generally follows the trend of IVCN, but it should be noted uncertainty is very high by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.5N 173.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.8N 174.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 23.2N 176.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 176.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 25.7N 178.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 26.5N 179.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 27.4N 177.2E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 29.0N 174.3E 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard/Foster