Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2033

   Mesoscale Discussion 2033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662...663...

   Valid 292140Z - 292315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662, 663
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW663. Clusters of
   strong to severe storms should continue into this evening. Damaging
   wind gusts and occasional hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, several clusters of strong to severe
   storms were ongoing across WW633. Over the past several hours, these
   clusters have produced occasional damaging wind gusts and isolated
   severe hail. The environment across the watch area and much of the
   Mid Atlantic remains unstable and modestly sheared with 2000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis and 20-25 kt of effective shear via
   area VADs. Convective coverage may increase slightly over the next
   coupe of hours as various outflows interact with ongoing and
   developing clusters. Damaging winds remain the most likely threat,
   though isolated hail is possible with the stronger updrafts given
   the degree of buoyancy.

   Hi-res guidance and the latest observational trends suggest the
   highest storm coverage may remain over parts of the MD/VA/PA border
   region this evening. This may support a locally greater corridor of
   severe risk as some of the ongoing clusters may consolidate further.
   However, this is uncertain, given the lack of more meaningful
   broad-scale forcing, and the severe risk remains across much of the
   watch.

   ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38368005 40407883 40917810 41047685 40947631 40727597
               40447586 40237589 39777606 38597654 38147688 37787786
               37627831 37527937 37588006 38368005