000 WTPA42 PHFO 290849 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 A few thunderstorms have been able to develop in association with Gilma's circulation this evening, but they have been unable to either wrap around, or move over, the center. This pulsing disorganized convection is doing little to sustain Gilma as a tropical cyclone, while also leading to lowering subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates that range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.5/35 kt. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory is maintained at 35 kt, primarily based on a 0643Z ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of 32 kt. Gilma's forward motion remains a steady 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of the cyclone will continue to steer it just north of due west over the next day or so, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected Friday as the ridge weakens. Little change to the previous forecast track was made, as consensus track guidance remains well clustered. Water vapor imagery and shear analyses indicate that Gilma is moving into an area of increasing westerly vertical wind shear on the order of 20-30 kt, associated with a trough aloft approaching from the west. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Gilma will only produce brief periods of deep convection over the next day or two, with Gilma gradually spinning down from its peak that occurred just a few days ago. Gilma will likely become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday, continue gradually weakening as it moves close to Hawaii on Friday, then dissipate in the vicinity of Kauai early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.5N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 19.8N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 20.4N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 21.2N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 22.2N 158.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard