265 WTPA42 PHFO 280848 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Infrared satellite imagery shows new deep convection in Gilma's northeast quadrant this evening, with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. These thunderstorms have been unable to wrap around the center of the cyclone due to strong westerly winds aloft. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 45 kt based on a consensus of subjective Dvorak estimates of 3.0/45 kt from PHFO, JTWC and SAB. Gilma continues to move almost due west, and the initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will steer the shallow cyclone westward to west-northwestward until it dissipates. There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and lies close to HCCA and FSSE guidance. Although Gilma's recent rapid weakening trend has eased this evening, it is still expected to degenerate to a remnant low as it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands Friday and Saturday. Only slight changes to the intensity forecast have been made, mainly to keep Gilma at minimal tropical storm strength for a bit longer than previously indicated. Guidance indicates the strong westerly vertical wind shear currently impacting Gilma's circulation may briefly ease Wednesday as a passing trough aloft lifts north. Another trough aloft approaching from the west is expected to bring even stronger vertical wind shear Thursday and Friday, eventually leading to dissipation near Hawaii this weekend. The new intensity forecast follows trends presented by regional hurricane guidance and SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.5N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 19.2N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 19.7N 150.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 20.2N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.8N 155.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 21.7N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard