Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

Hector this evening continues to produce a large area of deep
convection, though this activity is struggling to become better
organized and wrap around the circulation center, possibly due to
continued 15-20 kt westerly shear helping to entrain very dry
mid-level air near its center. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates remain largely unchanged this evening, and the initial
intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to move off to the west-northwest at 
285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering Hector is expected 
to weaken somewhat as a mid- to upper-level weakness forms north of 
Hector. However, the cyclone is also likely to become more 
vertically shallow and thus steered more by a low-level ridge that 
will remain in place to the north. Thus, the track forecast shows 
Hector bending back more westward over the next several days. The 
latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and 
lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The overall environment near Hector currently is not all that 
favorable for much additional strengthening. The current moderate 
shear is not forecast to let up much as Hector also moves over the 
cold wake left behind by Gilma, which itself has dramatically 
weakened as it encountered less favorable conditions. Thus, 
weakening continues to be forecast with Hector, in good agreement 
with the intensity guidance. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show the 
cyclone losing its remaining organized convection after 48 hours, 
and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical 
remnant low before it crosses into the Central Pacific basin.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 18.2N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin