000 WTPA41 PHFO 271440 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hone continues to produce some vigorous deep convection, but this activity is not well organized, and the overall cloud pattern is rather ragged-looking. The area of cold cloud tops has a sharp edge on the western side of the circulation, indicative of westerly shear over the system. The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from PHFO. The storm is moving a little north of west with an initial motion estimate of 280/12 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast to remain north of Hone for the next 48 to 72 hours. This should result in a generally west-northwestward track until the system dissipates later this week. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Hone is likely to remain in an environment of strong upper-level westerly winds for the next few days, which should maintain strong vertical wind shear over the cyclone. Thus, even though the system will be traversing gradually warmer waters, shear and dry air are likely to cause weakening through the forecast period. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models show the system losing most of its deep convection in about 60 hours, as does the official forecast. By the weekend, the dynamical guidance indicates that Hone will open up into a trough over the western part of the Central Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 165.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 167.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.5N 169.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.9N 171.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.9N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 176.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch