MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Areas affected...southern and eastern MInnesota and northern Iowa.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270846Z - 270945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues to decrease across
portions of the Upper Midwest. No downstream watch is anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A few strong to potentially severe storms moved through
watch 654 over the past few hours and are now exiting eastern
portions of the watch. Convective trends are down and as storms
continue to outrun the better deep-layer shear, expect this trend to
continue. Nonetheless, a very unstable airmass remains ahead of
these storms (4000 J/kg MUCAPE across northern Iowa). Therefore,
occasional stronger updrafts capable of isolated severe weather
remain possible, albeit unlikely. Given the weakening trend, a
downstream watch will not be issued east of watch 654.
..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42369504 42769531 44719536 45249520 45319305 44889263
44049208 43159202 42999203 42489303 42369504