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| Mesoscale Discussion 2004 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651... Valid 262344Z - 270115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651. A bow echo MCS may develop soon and produce a focused corridor of severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Multiple HP supercells have merged over the past hour into an MCS, with KMPX radar data showing more low-level outflow along the leading edge of these storms. Both KMPX and MRMS mosaic radar imagery show some bowing structure to this MCS, with cross-sections of KMPX velocity data showing a possible rear-inflow jet becoming established in the MCS's trailing precipitation region. This MCS is poised to track eastward along a buoyancy gradient delineating a modestly vs. extremely unstable environment. Low-level shear is weak to modest at best ahead of this MCS, so it is unclear if an intense bow echo can become established. Nonetheless, given extreme buoyancy, at least some bow echo organization is likely over the next couple of hours, accompanied by a severe gust threat. A focused corridor of damaging winds cannot be ruled out, and a couple of the stronger gusts may reach or exceed 75 mph. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44079473 44699396 45429316 45529242 45239186 44799174 44379222 44089281 43909337 43889435 44079473 |
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