Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

644 
WTPZ43 KNHC 262036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

Hector's cloud pattern has not become better organized since earlier 
today.  Most of the deep convection is over the northern and eastern 
portions of the circulation.  Microwave imagery suggested some 
southeastward tilt of the vortex center with height.  Upper-level 
outflow is limited and mainly occurring over the southern portion of 
the system.  Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications from both 
TAFB and SAB are T3.0 corresponding to an intensity of 45 kt, so the 
advisory intensity remains unchanged at that value.

Hector has been moving west-northwestward with an initial motion 
estimate of 285/9 kt.  There is little change to the track forecast 
philosophy.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone 
is forecast to strengthen slightly during the next few days.  This 
should result in a west-northwestward to westward motion with a 
gradual increase in forward speed during the forecast period.  By 
the end of the period, Hector should be a shallow system and be 
steered mainly by the low-level easterly flow.  The official track 
forecast is basically an extension of the previous one, and remains 
close to the model consensus aids.

Dynamical guidance indicates that weak-to-moderate vertical wind 
shear is likely over Hector during the next few days which could 
allow some strengthening.  However, the system is expected to 
continue moving near or over the cool wake of Hurricane Gilma and 
drier air should be affecting the circulation within the next couple 
of days. Therefore only a slight short-term increase in strength is 
forecast, with the official forecast being on the high side of the 
model guidance.  Given the expectation of increasingly unfavorable 
environmental conditions later in the forecast period, the official 
forecast shows Hector becoming a remnant low in 5 days.  However the 
global models suggest that the system may degenerate even sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 16.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.9N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.6N 131.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 17.7N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 17.7N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 17.7N 138.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.6N 144.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch