189 WTPA41 PHFO 262044 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hone's well-defined low-level circulation center is clearly seen in visible satellite images this morning, with limited deep convection well separated from the center. Primary data point supporting this advisory's intensity estimate is NDBC buoy 51003, which recorded a minimum pressure near 998 mb and winds gusting to 54 kt as Hone's center passed very close around 5 AM HST this morning. As this was the pressure used in the previous advisory, the initial intensity estimate will remain unchanged at 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 280/11kt. The cyclone continues to gradually spin down in the face of moderate westerly vertical wind shear, and the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered generally westward until dissipation occurs on day 4. Some slowing in forward speed and increase in latitude is expected after midweek as the center of the surface high now due north of Hone shifts eastward. The updated forecast track is informed by well-clustered track guidance, and will take Hone into a environment characterized by increasingly strong westerly winds aloft. The intensity forecast indicates that Hone will become a post-tropical low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday before crossing the International Date Line, in line with a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.2N 161.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.6N 166.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 20.0N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.3N 170.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.8N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.4N 174.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard