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| Mesoscale Discussion 2000 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2000 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern South Dakota into Central/Southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649... Valid 261943Z - 262145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for large/very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe winds (some 75+ mph) will increase this afternoon into the evening, especially for parts of central/southern Minnesota. DISCUSSION...A storm within the buoyancy gradient has increased in intensity over the last 30 minutes. Additional development appears likely to its immediate south-southwest. Potential for large and severe winds are expected to increase this afternoon. Of additional concern are towering cumulus starting to develop in west-central Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Short-term guidance from the HRRR and the latest MPAS runs suggest that one or both of these areas could see storms develop within the next 1-3 hours. These storms are in a more favorable thermodynamic environment than storms farther north. Large to very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe winds (some 75+ mph) would be possible. The exact evolution of these storms remains a point of uncertainty. Most guidance suggests that storms could congeal into an MCS where severe winds would become a greater threat as activity moves east. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 46659530 46999428 46849376 45429329 44699369 43869508 43749616 43679628 43689642 43909656 44839673 46349668 46479616 46659530 |
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