Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1997

   Mesoscale Discussion 1997
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261735Z - 261900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial storm development in central Minnesota may be
   elevated to marginally surface based and struggle against residual
   capping. Should storms mature, large hail and wind damage are
   possible. A watch is possible, but this will depend on trends in
   convective evolution.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in west-central Minnesota,
   likely aided by weak warm advection at lower levels. This mornings
   soundings from Aberdeen/Minneapolis showed a warm nose within the
   850-700 mb layer. It appears that convection is struggling to
   intensify/organize with this capping in place. Furthermore,
   large-scale ascent is currently weak. Should this activity mature,
   large hail and isolated wind damage would be possible.

   Short-term guidance is not consistent in how this activity will
   evolve, with some suggesting it will weaken in the next few hours
   and others showing cold pool development that spurs new convection
   farther south where greater buoyancy resides. From a large-scale
   perspective, greater ascent/mid-level cooling is not expected until
   later in the afternoon, though an MCV moving through eastern South
   Dakota could potentially supplement ascent locally earlier. The most
   probable scenario is that more robust convection will develop by
   mid/late afternoon near an area of surface convergence in central
   Minnesota. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain;
   however, trends will continue to be closely monitored this
   afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45449550 45369626 45559646 46069663 46529636 47109448
               46939347 46459331 45849401 45449550