000 WTPA41 PHFO 261445 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Moderate westerly shear is continuing to take a toll on Hone. The low level circulation appears to be partly exposed and the center is likely near the western edge of an earlier burst of convection. PHFO and JTWC subjective intensities were 3.5, which agrees well with UW-CIMSS SATCON and AiDT. The initial intensity was lowered to 55 kt with this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west, 280/11, to the south of deep layer ridging. This general motion should persist for the next several days and the track guidance is still relatively tightly clustered. The current forecast is very similar to the previous forecast track. Although Hone will be moving over warmer sea surface temperatures, increasingly strong shear through the forecast period will continue to gradually weaken the tropical cyclone. Later in the forecast period, the low level trade wind flow will continue to take the shallow circulation of Hone on a westward journey. Most of the guidance shows a slightly slower forward speed prior to expected dissipation. The intensity forecast continues to be a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance, and very similar to the previous forecast package. Hone should become a remnant low in about 4 days prior to dissipation as it approaches the International Date Line. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.4N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 162.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.6N 165.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.9N 167.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.3N 169.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.7N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.1N 174.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.7N 178.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard