Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1993

   Mesoscale Discussion 1993
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast ND into northeast SD and western MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260453Z - 260700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Capping and a lack of large-scale ascent has thus far
   inhibited storm development along/ahead of a cold front now moving
   across eastern ND into northwest MN. While the opportunity for
   surface-based development along the front has diminished, modest
   ascent and midlevel moistening associated with a weak shortwave
   trough moving across ND could support elevated thunderstorm
   development later tonight. Strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer
   shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, and
   some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind could evolve if
   robust development can occur.  

   Farther south, an outflow-driven storm cluster across northeast SD
   has shown signs of weakening, but may pose a short-term threat of
   gusty/damaging winds as it approaches west-central MN and extreme
   southeast ND. There will be some potential for elevated convection
   to occasionally flare up in the vicinity of this remnant cluster,
   though the severe potential from any redevelopment will likely tend
   to be relatively isolated.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   49269438 48359411 46329494 44239586 44219727 44459739
               44769753 45689784 46489729 46989695 47649651 48779594
               49099561 49479508 49329452 49269438