035 WTPA41 PHFO 252056 TCDCP1 Hurricane Hone Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Data from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirm what can be deduced from latest satellite images, that Hone has weakened since undergoing a period of intensification last night. The pressure has been rising slowly over the course of this morning's mission, and the highest flight-level winds thus far have been 67 kt. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 70 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/12kt, as Hone's forward speed has increased somewhat since the previous advisory. Recent jogs in the observed track may have been related to the high terrain of the Big Island, but as it continues to move away, Hone's general westward motion will be imparted by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The updated forecast track is close to the previous, after accounting for a northwesterly jog as Hone passed south of the Big Island, and most closely follows the dynamical consensus models. Water vapor and infrared satellite images show that Hone lies in a col between upper-level ridges centered to the distant east- northeast and west. This pattern has been providing enhanced outflow aloft over the last 12-18 hours, likely aiding in the observed intensification to a hurricane. The forecast track will take Hone north of the upper-level ridge axis to its west, and into an area of increased westerly vertical wind shear, especially after Tuesday. Despite steadily increasing SSTs along the forecast track, the forecast anticipates that Hone will weaken due to the shear. The intensity forecast generally follows the trends presented by the intensity consensus, and anticipates that Hone will dissipate before exiting the central Pacific basin. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island into the early afternoon, with gradually diminishing wind and rainfall through the evening. Winds will strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Hone will continue to deliver persistent and locally widespread rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian islands. 3. Swells generated by Hone are affecting portions of the Hawaiian islands, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.8N 157.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.1N 159.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 161.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.3N 163.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 165.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 19.9N 168.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 170.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 174.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard