000 WTPA41 PHFO 251436 TCDCP1 Hurricane Hone Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hone is passing by around 40 nautical miles south of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, where it is within radar range. Combined radar, and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission earlier this morning, support raising the initial intensity of Hone to 75 knots, keeping it a Category 1 Hurricane. Despite recent subjective Dvorak estimates suggesting a slightly lower intensity, the satellite presentation has evolved markedly overnight, with cold cloud tops near -75 C reinforcing the radar and aircraft-based intensities. The initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion of Hone is set at 280/07. This westward trajectory is expected to persist over the coming days, influenced by a subtropical ridge to the north. However, as Hone remains near the Big Island through the early morning hours today, the mountainous terrain could influence local steering currents, potentially leading to localized and short-term deviations in the storm's motion and intensity. As we move into the early to mid portion of the week, Hone is projected to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, which is expected to weaken the storm and make it more shallow. This change in conditions will allow the low-level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west-southwest. The official forecast track remains nearly identical to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with the tightly clustered consensus guidance. Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the next 12 to 24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26 C and 27 C, light to moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level moisture. This supports maintaining a steady trend in intensity through the morning hours today. Although sea surface temperatures are forecast to rise to around 27 C tonight and beyond as Hone continues westward, increasing vertical wind shear will translate to a gradual weakening trend later today through the middle of the week. The intensity forecast closely follows dynamical consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward. 3. Swells generated by Hone will continue today as this system continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 156.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs