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| Mesoscale Discussion 1986 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Montana and extreme northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250430Z - 250630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail threat are expected with convection into the early morning hours across northeast Montana. DISCUSSION...Right-entrance region of a mid-level jet over southern SK may be partly responsible for recent uptick in elevated convection that is spreading into northeast MT. Latest surface data suggests a weak low is tracking across southeast MT toward western ND. Primary pacific frontal surge is associated with a gradually expanding cluster of thunderstorms from southern Phillips to northern Rosebud County. Severe wind gust has recently been reported at JDN along the leading edge of this activity. Latest HREF guidance has a reasonable handle on this scenario and subsequent movement should spread across the remainder of northeast MT early this morning. Unless multiple supercells develop within this expanding cluster, hail production should be limited and generally less than one inch. Even so, an isolated severe report or two can not be ruled out, and most likely will be a gust approaching 50kt. Given the marginality of this convection, current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently needed. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... LAT...LON 48100763 49440522 48780356 47030593 48100763 |
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