175 WTPA41 PHFO 230251 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Deep convection with Hone has faded over the last several hours and the curved band structure has become poorly defined once again. Similar to the prior advisory, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC range from 2.0 to 2.5, with automated Dvorak techniques maintaining 30 to 35 kt. Have held the initial intensity at 35 kt based on the consensus of Dvorak analyses. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft will be able to give us a better idea of the intensity, structure, and size of Hone tomorrow morning. The initial motion is 275/14, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. As the subtropical ridge starts to weaken on days 4 to 5, expect a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn towards the west-northwest. The track forecast follows closely to the tightly clustered guidance consensus, which shifted just a touch south with this run. Little change in the environmental conditions are expected along the forecast track over the next several days. This environment includes low to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 27-28C, and sufficient deep layer moisture surrounding the tropical cyclone. This is expected to support gradual strengthening as the system moves in a generally westward direction. Late in the weekend into early next week, the system will begin to encounter an increase in westerly vertical wind shear, along with some drier mid-level air. This should lead to the gradual weakening of the system. The intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus during the next several days, bringing the system close to hurricane strength over the weekend, with the forecast lower than the consensus by days 4 and 5, more closely in line with SHIPS guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur over windward and southeast facing slopes. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.8N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 16.1N 145.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.4N 147.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.8N 150.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 17.3N 155.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 17.7N 157.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.6N 159.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.5N 162.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard