000 WTPA41 PHFO 222037 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 from PHFO, SAB and JTWC. The automated Dvorak techniques also show maximum winds of 30 to 35 kt. The Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind analysis shows a small area 35 kts on the north side of the center. Combined with additional development and improved curved band structure of the convection over the past few hours, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hone. The initial motion of Tropical Storm Hone is 290/12 knots, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. A decrease in forward speed, coupled with a slight turn towards the west- northwest is expected around days 4 and 5 when the subtropical ridge is forecast to start to weaken. The track forecast follows along closely to the tightly clustered guidance consensus. Hone is expected to remain in an environment of low to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures between 27 and 28C, and in a sufficient area of deep layer moisture over the next several days. This should support gradual strengthening as the system moves in a steady westward direction. Late in the weekend into early next week, the system will begin to encounter an increase in westerly vertical wind shear, and possibly some drier mid-level air. This should lead to the gradual weakening of the system. The intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus during the next several days, bringing the system up close to hurricane strength over the weekend, with the forecast lower than the consensus guidance by days 4 and 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Hone. Hone is forecast to pass near or south of the Big Island over the weekend, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and dangerous surf and rip currents. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.9N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 144.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.7N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.0N 149.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 17.3N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.5N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.8N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.6N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 19.5N 161.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard