Mesoscale Discussion 1941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southeast NE...North-Central/Northeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633... Valid 181251Z - 181445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts continues across central Nebraska. This threat may continue into southeast Nebraska and north-central/northeast Kansas and downstream watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Despite becoming displaced further east of the primary low-level jet axis, the cluster (which now consists of two primary supercells) across central NE has persisted and perhaps even strengthened. This likely results from a combination of mature storm organization, increasing large-scale ascent, and continued mid-level warm-air advection. Current storm motion of the two supercells is southeasterly at 30 to 35 kt, which brings them to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 at around 1430Z. However, there is some chance these storms begin progressing faster, as the system becoming increasingly linear. This cluster is expected to continue southeastward along the northern gradient of the corridor of buoyancy extending from central KS into western SD. Low-level stability may persist ahead of this cluster for at least the next several hours, but the trends over the past hour suggest this cluster is likely mature enough to maintain its strength. As such, large hail and strong gusts remain possible. Given the persisting low-level stability, the longevity is uncertain, but trends suggest a downstream watch may be needed into southeast NE and adjacent north-central/northeast KS. ..Mosier/Smith.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39559851 41260017 42360019 42649952 42519850 41229650 39669621 39559851
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1941
18
Aug