Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1933

   Mesoscale Discussion 1933
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Middle Tennessee...northern
   Alabama...northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171957Z - 172130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat to persist through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm activity across northern
   Alabama/southern Tennessee into northern Georgia has shown increase
   in intensity, with transient supercell characteristics. These are
   occurring in the vicinity of a remnant MCV, which has led to a
   narrow corridor of 30-40 kts of deep layer shear likely contributing
   to a more organized storm mode. Temperatures in this region have
   warmed into the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid to upper
   70s, with MLCAPE analyzed around 2000-2500 J/kg. This moist and
   unstable air mass will support potential for wet downbursts and
   perhaps a risk of large hail and damaging wind from stronger more
   organized storms. This activity will likely continue to increase in
   coverage, potentially clustering along outflow, into northern
   Georgia and South Carolina through the afternoon/evening. Should
   this occur, the risk of damaging wind may increase. The Slight Risk
   has been expanded southward at 20z, and a watch may be needed to
   cover this threat.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35138672 35488543 35308414 35208327 35018254 34648168
               34198123 33968168 33868262 33598450 33868664 34298735
               35138672