Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1929

   Mesoscale Discussion 1929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southeast KS...Northeast OK...Northern/Central
   AR...Far Southeast MO/MO Bootheel

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629...

   Valid 170622Z - 170815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts remain possible along the outflow
   pushing south across central Arkansas. Isolated hail is also
   possible from northeast Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas, and
   southeast Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis reveals an extensive outflow boundary
   extending from northwest OK southwestward into central AR and then
   back northeastward into northeast AR and southeast MO. Convective
   cluster responsible for this outflow continues to progress
   southeastward across northern and central AR, with the outflow now
   notably ahead of the deep convection. This displacement between the
   deep convection and the outflow should persist, and perhaps even
   increase, over the next few hours with the overall
   intensity/organization of the convective line expected to decrease.

   Farther northwest, warm-air advection atop the outflow has resulted
   in more cellular development across northeast OK and southeast KS.
   Moderate elevated buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE from around 2000-2500 J/kg)
   and moderate vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear around 30 to
   35 kt) is supporting strong to occasionally severe storms within
   this warm-air advection regime. Overall storm coverage is likely
   near a maximum now, with isolated hail possible for the next hour or
   two.

   Lastly, a few storms have quickly intensified across far southeast
   MO/MO Bootheel over the past hour, amid modest warm-air advection
   near the outflow. Buoyancy is less in this region than areas south
   and west, but bulk shear is slightly stronger. As a result, some
   isolated hail is possible here for the next hour or two as well.

   ..Mosier.. 08/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36579611 37869621 37799525 36539366 36389229 37379067
               36948942 36268968 34509192 34079313 34339426 35219525
               36579611