Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1925

   Mesoscale Discussion 1925
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of western Oklahoma into far northwestern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

   Valid 170038Z - 170215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 628. Severe wind and hail remain the primary threats over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A robust uptick in convective coverage and intensity
   has been noted in north-central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas over
   the past couple of hours, where severe wind and hail have been
   observed. Despite weak forcing, thunderstorms have managed to
   initiate off of multiple converging low-level baroclinic/outflow
   boundaries. Furthermore, the OUN 00Z observed sounding shows near
   3000 J/kg MLCAPE atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 30F
   T/Td spreads. 20-30 F spreads are also evident across eastern OK
   ahead of the ongoing storms, with 00Z mesoanalysis depicting over
   4500 J/kg MLCAPE (given mid 70s F surface dewpoints). Meanwhile, the
   00Z OUN sounding, as well as VNX, TLX, and INX VAD profilers show
   hodographs with modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation,
   supporting supercell structures when accounting for the strong to
   locally extreme buoyancy in place. As such, supercells may persist
   into northeast OK over the next few hours with a continued
   severe-wind threat, though large hail is also possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35209990 36199857 36849753 37039542 36979429 36659377
               36289372 36029411 35869555 35629666 35099774 34889843
               34939930 35209990