Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1923

   Mesoscale Discussion 1923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162231Z - 170030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds locally -- with potential for a gust or two
   near severe levels -- can be expected over the next couple of hours
   across a portion of far southeastern Wisconsin and into northern
   Illinois.  WW issuance is not expected, due to anticipated
   marginal/isolated nature of the risk.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a semi-organized band of
   storms has developed over northwestern Illinois, ahead of a subtle,
   eastward-moving mid-level vort max embedded within the cyclonic flow
   surrounding the western Lake Superior upper low.  A narrow axis of
   1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated just ahead of the band of
   storms, which suggests continuation -- and possible/slight
   strengthening over the next 1 to 2 hours.  

   The latest VWP from the KLOT (Chicago, IL) WSR-88D shows flow weakly
   veering from west-southwesterly to west-northwesterly with height,
   and increasing to around 35 kt at mid levels.  This should allow
   storms to progress into the Chicago -- and possibly Milwaukee --
   vicinity, accompanied by gusty winds.  While a couple of gusts could
   near or reach severe levels, risk should remain sparse and marginal,
   and thus insufficient to warrant WW consideration.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 08/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41899033 42458943 43088879 42888810 41938760 41438790
               41418935 41899033