Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1880

   Mesoscale Discussion 1880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast CO...southwest NE...far southeast
   WY...and far northwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111917Z - 112115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of
   producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the
   next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
   area.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening and
   expanding along an east/west-oriented confluence zone extending from
   southeastern WY into the southwestern NE Panhandle -- and isolated
   convective initiation is underway here. Additional attempts at
   development are ongoing along a lee trough extending northward
   across southwest WY. Given this focused mesoscale ascent and
   continued diurnal heating of a relatively moist boundary layer
   (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints), current expectation is
   for a few thunderstorms to evolve/intensify during the next couple
   hours before spreading east-southeastward. The CYS VWP is sampling a
   unidirectional westerly shear profile (around 35 kt of 0-6 km
   shear), and this will continue increasing to around 40-50 kt with
   the approach of a midlevel jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms may
   intensify into organized clusters and/or supercell structures,
   posing a risk of large hail (generally up to 2 inches in diameter)
   and severe wind gusts to around 70 mph. 

   Modest large-scale ascent and substantial MLCINH with eastward
   extent cast uncertainty on the overall coverage of the severe
   threat, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch this
   afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40690381 40960413 41270421 41630423 41970412 42180382
               42190335 41670208 40830143 39410123 39000162 38940247
               39190294 40240355 40690381