Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Forecast Discussion

344 
WTPZ45 KNHC 090244
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia has failed to produce much in the way of organized convection 
since the prior burst waned earlier this morning, aside from a small 
patch of -50 C cloud tops currently south of the estimated center. 
SAB Dvorak classifications have been too weak to classify since this 
afternoon, while the TAFB Final-T number is down to 2.0/30-kt which 
was constrained from going lower. While there might continue to be 
some occasional puffs of convection with Emilia over the next day or 
so, the cyclone has crossed the 24 C isotherm and heading towards 
even cooler ocean waters, and the chance of a more significant 
convective resurgence is low. Thus, Emilia is being declared a 30-kt 
post-tropical remnant low this cycle, and this will be the last NHC 
advisory.

The system continues to move generally west-northwestward at 290/10 
kt. This motion should continue for the next several days followed 
by a turn more westward beyond 36 h as the low continues to weaken 
and becomes more steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC 
track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast, in 
good agreement with the multi-model consensus aids. The latest 
forecast now shows the remnant low dissipating after 72 h, a bit 
faster than before.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 22.3N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin