000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm. The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open into a trough and dissipate by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion
08
Aug