Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 062053
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Fabio is showing indications of slight weakening this afternoon, 
possibly associated with its continued close proximity to Tropical 
Storm Emilia. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and visible 
satellite imagery indicates that the center has become partially 
exposed on the west side of the storm. Subjective and objective 
intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, respectively, also 
suggest that Fabio has weakened slightly. Based on these estimates 
and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity estimate is 
decreased to 50 kt for this advisory. 

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 
300/18 kt. The uncertainty in the track forecast remains higher than 
usual, due to the ongoing interaction between Fabio and Emilia. The 
current forecast favors that Emilia will absorb Fabio, as shown by 
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The forecast timing of Fabio's demise is in 
between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.  The GFS holds onto Fabio 
about a day longer than the ECMWF solution. The current forecast is 
slightly to the north of the prior forecast and similar to the 
best-performing consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. 

It appears that the upper-level outflow from Emilia is impacting 
Fabio, and this should preclude significant strengthening. None of 
the better performing intensity guidance aids indicate significant 
strengthening, and the new NHC forecast now shows Fabio weakening 
steadily before merging with Emilia. This solution is close to the 
IVCN and HCCA consensus models, as well as the prior forecast. 
However, given the track forecast uncertainty, a change in the 
forecast philosophy is not out of the question for subsequent 
advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 19.2N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett