Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 062053
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Satellite imagery shows curved banding that has become slightly more 
impressive over the past 6 h, and there are signs that the RMW may 
have contracted a bit.  Emilia has a much healthier appearance on 
satellite imagery compared to Fabio, which is currently centered 
about 320 miles to the north-northeast of Emilia.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, 
and the latest reliable objective intensity estimates from CIMSS 
range from 48 to 59 kt.  The intensity is held at 55 kt for this 
advisory, but this estimate could be slightly conservative.

Emilia is moving slowly northwestward, or 325/3-kt.  The northerly 
flow to the west of Fabio is keeping Emilia's forward speed slow for 
now.  However, as Fabio moves farther west over the next day or so, 
Emilia will accelerate to the northwest.  The confidence in the 
track forecast is below average due to the complex interaction with 
Fabio.  The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to the right and 
slightly slower than the previous official forecast for about the 
first 36 h, closer to the latest model consensus.  Emilia is 
forecast to absorb Fabio into its circulation by Thursday, but there 
are some timing differences among the various models.  The timing 
and location of the merger is a blend of the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF 
model solutions.  After the merger, Emilia will turn toward the 
west-northwest as it is steered more by the lower-level flow.  The 
track forecast beyond 48 h is very close to the previous NHC 
forecast.  

The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging. 
The NHC forecast continues to favor the solution in which Emilia 
absorbs Fabio in 36 to 48 h.  Emilia has been able to fight off 
moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear so far, and it seems 
reasonable that the cyclone could intensify a bit more over the next 
24 h as it remains over warm ocean waters.  Emilia is forecast to 
cross the 26C isotherm by 36 h, and steady weakening is expected 
after that time.  Emilia should weaken below tropical storm strength 
on Friday and become a remnant low on Saturday.  The latest 
intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance and 
is similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 14.4N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett