Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 060848
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052024               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA CLARION   34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

15N 115W       34 76  20(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
15N 115W       50  4  47(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
15N 115W       64  1  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

15N 120W       34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)  10(10)  46(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI