Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060246
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Earlier ASCAT data showed that Emilia was likely a 45 kt tropical 
storm around 18Z, with an exposed low-level center located just 
outside of and to the northeast of the convective overcast area, 
due to moderate northeasterly shear.  Since that time, the 
low-level center appears to have moved toward the edge of the 
convective mass.  However infrared satellite imagery shows that some 
of the cloud tops in the convective area have warmed slightly during 
that time.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 45 kt from 
TAFB and 35 kt from SAB.  Recent objective intensity estimates from 
CIMSS range from 34 to 42 kt.  Based on all the data and satellite 
imagery, the 45 kt intensity is unchanged from the previous NHC 
advisory.

The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will 
be the survivor in its interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio to the 
east, and the merger is forecast to happen on Wednesday or Wednesday 
night.  In the short term, moderate northeasterly shear is forecast 
to continue over Emilia.  Due to the moderate shear, only modest 
strengthening is forecast, and no change is made to the previous NHC 
peak intensity forecast of 55 kt.  After Emilia absorbs Fabio in 
about 48 h, Emilia is forecast to move over less than 26C SSTs, 
which should cause weakening.  Emilia is forecast to weaken below 
tropical storm strength by day 4, and will continue to spin down 
after that as it moves over progressively colder water.  Confidence 
in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model 
guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around.

Emilia is currently moving very slowly toward the west-southwest.  
A turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in 
forward speed is expected Tuesday, and Emilia is expected to absorb 
Fabio on Wednesday.  After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia 
should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- 
to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected 
for the remainder of the forecast period.  Only very minor changes 
were made to the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.8N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen