Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

967 
WTPZ44 KNHC 031448
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Over the last several days, we have been monitoring the area of low 
pressure located in the western part of the east Pacific basin, 
currently near 130W. The deep convection with the system has been 
pulsing during this time, and has been showing evidence of 
organization. In fact, TAFB has been providing Dvorak intensity 
estimates of CI-2.0/30 kt over the past day, and SAB more recently 
provided a Data-T of 2.0/30 kt at 12 UTC. Overnight, scatterometer 
wind data showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of 
35-40 kt west of the center. Some of these winds may have been 
rain- inflated, but the coverage was broad enough that it is likely 
that tropical storm force winds exist with the circulation. The 
combination of these data suggest that the low has become a Tropical 
Storm, and advisories are being initiated on Daniel with an 
intensity of 35 kt. 

The tropical storm has been meandering, but the current motion is 
estimated to be slowly off to the northwest at 315/4 kt. Over the 
next day or two, Daniel is expected to be embedded in southwesterly 
monsoonal flow that is shifting northward ahead of Hurricane 
Carlotta. This flow is expected to result in Daniel soon turning 
northward and then northeastward as it remains embedded in this 
flow. After 48 h, The storm may pivot back toward the north and 
north-northwest as it becomes captures by Carlotta's larger outer 
circulation. The track guidance does have a significant amount of 
spread beyond 48 h related to how much Carlotta captures the smaller 
Daniel, with the initial track forecast electing to go in between 
the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids, which also roughly splits the 
difference between the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The environment Daniel has been and will be embedded in is not very 
favorable for much additional intensification, with moderate 
northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level relative 
humidity. Only a modest amount of strengthening is shown in the 
short-term, and ultimately Daniel is likely to get caught up in 
Carlotta's circulation, finally being absorbed by the larger cyclone 
after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with 
the guidance, close to SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 12.6N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin