Local Statement for Four (Melbourne, FL)

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL042024
556 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This product covers East Central Florida

**Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Lake County** 

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Lake and 
      Southern Lake

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and 
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 560 miles south-southeast of Leesburg FL
    - 21.4N 78.3W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 290 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is located over central Cuba this
afternoon and is forecast to move west-northwest through tonight and
emerge across the Florida Straits Saturday morning. The system is
expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by Saturday night as it
begins to move northward off the southwest Florida coast. It will
continue to move north to north-northeastward during the day on Sunday
and approach the northern Florida peninsula.

Tropical moisture is expected to increase across east central Florida
ahead of this system with rain bands moving northward from south
Florida by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The heaviest
rainfall is expected northwest of the I-4 corridor on Sunday as the
system makes it closest approach. Rainfall totals may reach 2 to
4 inches across Okeechobee county and the Treasure Coast and up to
4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts across portions of Lake County 
and areas northwest of I-4. 

At this time the system is forecast to be at tropical storm strength
as it approaches the northern Florida peninsula from the Gulf on
Sunday afternoon. Gusty squalls are expected with this system with the
potential for wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is
now in effect for Lake County for the potential of tropical storm
winds being experienced in the next 48 hours.

In addition to the strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes may develop in
outer rainbands on Sunday as the system moves northward closer to east
central Florida. 

Do not let your guard down, especially in locations east of the
current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from this tropical cyclone will
be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to
ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in
place.

As Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes better organized over the
next 24 to 48 hours, additional changes to the current forecast are
possible. Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the
potential for additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National
Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across 
Lake County. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is 
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant 
impacts across northern portions of east central Florida. Potential 
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and 
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter 
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially 
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and 
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. 
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid 
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as 
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions 
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible 
limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Little impacts are anticipated, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled 
out at this time across east central Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies 
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your 
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the 
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging 
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the 
center of the storm. 

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news 
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes 
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Melbourne FL around 1200 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$