Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1699

   Mesoscale Discussion 1699
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

   Areas affected...Western New York and far northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241730Z - 241900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
   with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to mature across
   western New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Continued
   heating and low-level moisture advection will increase instability
   this afternoon, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The BUF VWP
   shows around 30 knots of effective shear which will support some
   updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
   with isolated large hail possible.

   A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear imminent, but if several
   stronger updrafts can congeal and mature, a small severe
   thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon/early evening.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42047682 41927726 41637878 41957996 42128019 42407954
               42767891 43097905 43497844 43417721 43467639 43057626
               42357657 42047682