Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1610

   Mesoscale Discussion 1610
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...far western Wisconsin...and
   far northeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...530...

   Valid 140750Z - 140945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528, 530
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail is expected to persist for
   at least the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing after
   roughly 10 UTC.

   DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery over the past 30 minutes continues to
   show strong updraft pulses embedded within a broader, loosely
   organized MCS that is slowly pushing south along the MS River.
   Reflectivity and velocity data from KARX show new convection
   developing along/just behind a consolidating outflow boundary,
   suggesting that portions of the MCS may become better organized in
   the short term. Additionally, weak convection on the western flank
   of the outflow has shown some signs of modest intensification,
   possibly due to an ingesting of higher theta-e air to the west of
   outflow from prior convection. Given these trends, a severe hail and
   wind risk should persist for the next 1-2 hours. 

   However, the longevity of this complex remains unclear as it moves
   into an air mass that has already seen some degree of convective
   overturning (mainly across northeast IA into southwest WI). Mean
   deep-level flow parallel to the MCS should limit the potential for
   bowing segments if a balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone can
   be established, and storm motions along the boundary should limit
   individual storm longevity (and any attendant severe hail threat).
   As such, confidence in the severe potential after roughly 10 UTC is
   low and downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated.
   Trends will be monitored for intensification on the western flank of
   the MCS that may favor a propagation along the aforementioned
   low-level theta-e gradient, which could prolong the severe threat.

   ..Moore.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43459326 43769343 44039332 44169303 44299232 44239185
               43979117 43769031 43479025 43209041 43099106 43119166
               43179220 43269272 43459326