Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1576

   Mesoscale Discussion 1576
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern NY...eastern PA...and northern
   NJ

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

   Valid 102317Z - 110045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for a
   couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts the next couple of
   hours across Tornado Watch 517.

   DISCUSSION...A mix of discrete supercells and line segments are
   ongoing this evening across parts of southern/central NY into
   central/eastern PA. This activity should continue to track northeast
   at around 35 kt over the next few hours, with additional storm
   development possible a bit further west along the synoptic cold
   front. A moist and unstable airmass with favorable vertical shear is
   in place and will aid in continued severe potential in the short
   term across Tornado Watch 517. 

   A gradual decrease in instability and more favorable vertical shear
   is noted with eastern extent into parts of southern NY, far eastern
   PA, NJ and southern New England. Storm intensity is expected to
   gradually wane with eastward extent through the evening as the
   boundary-layer nocturnally stabilizes. A downstream watch is not
   expected at this time. However, if needed, local watch extensions
   may be considered for parts of WFOs BGM and ALY as convection nears
   the watch boundary by 01z.

   ..Leitman.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42167655 42927543 43027540 43107433 42797367 42517340
               41987357 41627384 41047445 40267592 40267690 40307738
               40567774 41177735 42167655