Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1556

   Mesoscale Discussion 1556
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080938Z - 081115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Several supercells have formed and may pose a large hail
   threat for a few hours as they move east-southeast early this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells have developed across eastern New
   Mexico as a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. These
   storms have developed in a region with modest, but sufficient
   instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (35-40 knots) per
   SPC mesoanalysis. Expect this environment to shift slowly east which
   may allow for some stronger storms to persist into the western Texas
   Panhandle near daybreak. MRMS MESH suggests 2+ inch hail is possible
   in some of the larger cores. This seems significantly overestimated,
   but some 1 to 1.5 inch hail is possible. 

   This threat is expected to be too isolated/short lived for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35570484 35760425 35810385 35890317 35840283 35730246
               35620235 34870217 34260236 34060288 34080368 34450457
               34830486 35570484