Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 062041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last 
advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle.  
However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a 
mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center. 
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50 
kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since 
that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little 
change.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt.  The next 
aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z.  
Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment, 
which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of 
the day to the south and southwest of the convection.

The initial motion is now 310/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery 
continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central 
United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over 
Texas.  Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so, 
then gradually turn north and move into the break.  This motion 
should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast 
between 36-48 h.  Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently 
expected after 60-72 h.  There has been a little bit of a northward 
shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward 
initial position.  While this has produced only a small change in 
the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few 
hours earlier than in the previous advisory.  It should be noted 
that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center 
reformations.

While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid- 
to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during 
the past several hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease by 
Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as 
shown by all of the guidance.  The intensity forecast calls for 
Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to 
reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas 
landfall.  This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models, 
which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt.  After 
landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to 
decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close 
to one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north 
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass. 
Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local 
officials and follow evacuation orders. 

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to 
portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and 
Monday. A Hurricane Warning is now in place from Baffin Bay to 
Sargent. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical 
storm conditions begin late Sunday. 

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and 
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. 
River flooding is also possible. 

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed 
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 23.9N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 24.8N  94.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.0N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.5N  96.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 29.1N  96.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0600Z 30.8N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1800Z 32.4N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/1800Z 35.0N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/1800Z 38.0N  88.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven