2024-07-06 13:03:02
1720285878
Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Areas affected...central Nebraska into much of western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061701Z - 061900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will generally increase in coverage over the next
several hours from south-central Nebraska into northwest and western
Kansas. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Beneath cool midlevel temperatures and in a zone of
modest warm advection, isolated cells producing hail have formed
over central NE. This area is north of the surface warm front, which
diffusely extends east/west just north of the KS/NE border.
Low-level moisture is generally modest with upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints. However, cool temperatures aloft will combine with
continued heating to produce MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and overall
steepening lapse rates.
Surface observations already indicate substantial warming and
boundary-layer mixing ahead of the developing low near the CO/KS/NE
border, with a tight temperature gradient near the warm front.
Give the existence of lift near the warm front, and continued
destabilization, it seems unlikely that the ongoing storms will
dissipate, and thus a hail threat may persist with these cells.
A rapid ramp-up of storm coverage is then anticipated later this
afternoon, perhaps by 19Z-20Z along the front. This initial
convection will likely produce severe hail initially, with
increasing damaging wind threat as a linear mode takes shape. Shear
profiles appear to favor rightward-moving storms over western KS
through the afternoon, while eastward moving storms are most likely
along the warm front into southern NE.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 41659864 41559800 40949752 40389783 39619906 37940035
37910122 38160171 39370175 40090154 41050042 41439980
41659864