2024-07-04 12:31:03
1720110984
Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024
Areas affected...northern Kentucky...far southern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041630Z - 041900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A corridor of scattered damaging gusts or marginal hail
potential exists over much of central and northern Kentucky and
toward the Ohio River.
DISCUSSION...Within a weak surface trough and on the southern
periphery of the earlier rain/outflow, an extremely moist air mass
continues to heat and destabilize. Mid 70s F dewpoints exist along
with GPW PWAT values over 2.25". Meanwhile, strong heating exists
south of the outflow/frontal zone, with warming into the lower 90s
F.
Primarily westerly flow exists across the area, except
west/southwest within the boundary layer. As such, little northward
movement in the existing surface theta-e gradient is anticipated
over the next few hours.
VWPs indicate 35+ kt speeds at 700 mb, with around 50 kt at 500 mb.
As a result, developing robust storms now over southern IN and
western KY are likely to intensify and perhaps expand a bit in N/S
coverage through the afternoon. Ample PWAT to support downbursts,
steepening low-level lapse rates, and favorable low to midlevel mean
wind speeds all support a developing damaging wind threat, and a
watch may be needed.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 37518361 37558684 37578711 37638730 37978688 38348659
38598628 38748569 38768439 38778332 38438292 37988290
37648298 37518361