Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1503

   Mesoscale Discussion 1503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southeastern WY...NE
   Panhandle...Western/Central SD...Central ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011916Z - 012115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
   increase over the next few hours from the central Dakotas into the
   Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Some severe
   thunderstorms capable of 1 to 1.75" hail and gusts from 60 to 70 mph
   are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a broad shortwave trough
   progressing eastward across the northern Rockies/northern High
   Plains. The airmass downstream from the NE Panhandle into the
   central Dakotas continues to destabilize amid filtered daytime
   heating and ample low-level moisture. Recent surface observations
   show upper 60s dewpoints extending northward in the vicinity of a
   pre-frontal trough from far southeast WY into central ND.
   Expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development to
   occur over the next few hours ahead of the approaching shortwave,
   both along the cold front and pre-frontal trough. A predominately
   linear mode is anticipated along the front, but a few supercells are
   possible farther east along the lee trough where the buoyancy is
   greater and the vertical shear vector is a bit more
   southwesterly/westerly. Large hail around 1.75" is the primary
   threat with any more cellular development. Gusts from 60 to 70 mph
   will be the primary threat with the more linear storms. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to address this severe
   potential.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41570443 44910407 47630129 47109926 41580127 41570443