Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1502

   Mesoscale Discussion 1502
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...parts of eastern MT/western ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

   Valid 010336Z - 010500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat should shift across a
   part of east-central Montana before weakening in western North
   Dakota overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Strengthening of the low-level jet earlier this evening
   (the eastern periphery of which is sampled by the Bismarck VWP),
   yielded an increase in thunderstorm development along remnant
   outflow from decayed afternoon convection. Thus far, severe wind
   gusts up to 53 kts have been measured at Miles City, with
   golfball-sized hail reported in Treasure County, MT. Recently, the
   more intense updrafts have accelerated northeastward in east-central
   MT. This trend is expected to continue as MLCIN becomes more
   pronounced south of the I-94 corridor. The orientation of this
   evolution will result in storms encountering an increasingly more
   stable airmass in western ND. This should yield a diminishing trend
   to storms as they spread farther northeastward overnight. Until that
   time, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will remain
   possible, mainly through about 06Z.

   ..Grams.. 07/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47590599 48190480 48390391 48410310 48030270 47660296
               47200341 46780515 46750577 47320626 47590599