Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;897036
AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jan 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: A 1036 mb high was analyzed near 39N23W at 
1200 UTC today. The enhanced pressure gradient between this high
and low pressure over the Mediterranean supports fresh to strong 
NE winds offshore Morocco, currently N of 20N between the W coast 
of Africa and 35W. Rough seas are seen in this area as well. Winds
are expected to increase to gale-force speeds with severe gusts 
Wednesday afternoon, and Meteo-France has accordingly issued a 
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 07/18 UTC to 08/09 UTC. 

For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and extends to
02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03.5N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 18W, as well
as from 04N to 08N between 30W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from 29N85W 
to 25N87W. No convection is occurring near this trough. 
Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the Gulf. Moderate to 
locally fresh S to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are occurring over 
the western Gulf, with mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected west of 95W through Wed. Widespread
moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the central and
western Gulf by Wed night, with strong winds and rough seas 
possible offshore of Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a 
storm system forms over the central U.S. A strong cold front is 
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Fri night into Sat, with 
widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevailing in the 
wake of the front as it sweeps across the basin this weekend. Gale
force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, 
Mexico on Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Anegada Passage to 16N69W. A 1012 
mb low is centered near 17.5N80W, and a surface trough extends 
northeastward from the low to offshore NW Jamaica, as well as to 
the southeast to 13N78W. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the
front to the coast of Hispaniola. Elsewhere across the basin,
moderate to fresh trades also persist offshore NW Colombia and in
the NW Caribbean, along with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds
and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough 
seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean by this evening
as the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the Colombian low tightens. Winds may pulse to near- gale 
force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed. The 
tightening pressure gradient will also support pulsing of moderate
to fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of 
Cuba and south of Hispaniola through late week. High pressure will
further build north of the area by late week, supporting 
widespread fresh trade winds over much of the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning offshore Agadir.

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to a 1013 mb low near
23N60W. A cold front then extends from this low through the
Anegada Passage. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring near the cold front, north of 22N between 43W and 57W. A
shear line is analyzed from 29N57W to 22N70W to 24N77W. Gentle to
moderate NE winds are between the front and shear line, while NE 
winds quickly increase to fresh to strong speeds N of the shear 
line. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are seen roughly 200
nm N and W of the shear line. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE 
winds are ahead of the front.

Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining basin.
Outside of the region mentioned in the Special Features section,
fresh to strong trades and moderate seas are seen from 05N to 13N
between 25W and 50W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high 
pressure building across the area and a cold front in the central 
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of
the waters east of 70W. Rough seas N of 25N and east of 65W will 
subside through Wed morning. Elsewhere, locally fresh S to SW 
winds are expected well offshore of Florida into Wed as a surface 
trough develops to the north. High pressure will further build 
across the area by late week.

$$
Adams