Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;046777
AXNT20 KNHC 231055 CCA
TWDAT 

Corrected to add Special Feature about the Atlantic Gale Warning

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight gradient will set up between a
trough or low pressure forming east of the Bahamas, and strong
high pressure farther north over the eastern U.S. and western
Atlantic. This pattern will support gale force winds and rough to
very rough seas across the western Atlantic north of 27N and west of
60W from late Sat through Sun night into Mon morning. This will
include waters between northeast Florida, the northern Bahamas, 
and Bermuda. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous
marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid 
the affected areas.

Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level 
trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, 
while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the
southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact
with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining 
moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the 
next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore
flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, 
where heavy precipitation is expected through Sunday. Expect the 
heaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned 
areas on Sat and Sun. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for 
dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. 

Please refer to your local weather services and the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N16W 
and extends to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 05N52W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 
17W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight gradient between 1020 mb high pressure off Louisiana and a
trough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas across the eastern Gulf this
morning. Light to gentle NE to E winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted
over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high
pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas 
will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the 
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, tonight through early
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

An upper level trough over NW Caribbean supports scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central 
Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating 
moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the 
basin. 

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will
prevail through Sat. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central 
and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to 
moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Fresh N to NE winds 
across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W are
expected by early next week as high pressure builds north of the 
area. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel
Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a develop gale warning over the western Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active east of the
northern Bahamas, and west of a trough reaching from 31N60W to 
the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate breezes persist east of
50W, although a tongue of large N swell continues to move into 
the waters between 70W, with 7 to 9 ft wave heights. Waves are 5-7
ft elsewhere west of 560W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are active near another surface trough is noted along 50W north of
25N, and within 90 nm east of a trough along 32W from 10N to 18N.
Elsewhere, broad ridging centered on 1030 mb high pressure near 
the Azores is maintaining fresh to strong SE to S winds and 6-8 
ft seas north of 27N between 45W and 50W, and moderate to fresh E 
winds and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue
to propagate across the forecast region W of 65W and NE of the 
Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop 
beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a
trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to 
induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very 
rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the
waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. 
Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine 
conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the 
affected areas. 

$$
Christensen