Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;058148
AXNT20 KNHC 281632
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 
16N. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 05N-10N between 20W-26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 12N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate 
convection is found from 04N-10N between 46W-53W.

A tropical wave is over eastern Carribbean along 63W, south of 
20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. No convection is depicted
near the wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 0743W. Scattered moderate convection 
is occurring from 05N-10N and west of 19.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh SE winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over
the western Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds along with 
seas 1 to 3 ft prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
over the western Gulf, off of Veracruz. Similar convection is 
also occurring near the Florida Keys waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the 
Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and 
then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker 
winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle 
winds in the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details regarding a
tropical wave moving across the basin. 

Strong to near-gale force easterly winds along with seas 8 to 12 
ft prevail over the south-cetral Caribbean. Mainly fresh E winds 
along with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail over the central part of the 
basin. Fresh easterly winds are also present in the Gulf of 
Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee of Cuba. Seas 
within these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
easterly winds prevails with seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate 
convection is ongoing over the Windward Passage. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. 
Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the
basin during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging along 25N combined with lower pressure over the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh 
trades with seas 5-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic. Some NE strong
winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands and just 
offshore of S Western Sahara. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds
along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High 
will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the 
basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north 
of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings 
for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push 
off of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 
31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the 
cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low 
pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the 
frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW
waters north of 28N. 

$$
KRV