Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;421003
AXNT20 KNHC 301018
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N17W. 
The ITCZ axis extends from 03N17W to 02S30W to 03S40W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 20W 
and 32W, and near 02N11W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1031 mb high pressure 
located east of Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf of America
while a low pressure dominates NE Mexico. This pattern supports
moderate to fresh SE winds, with the exception of gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. In addition, 
scatterometer and altimeter data indicate an area of fresh to 
strong SE winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the Straits of 
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted 
over the NE and north-central parts of the Gulf. Areas of fog are
noted over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters of Texas and
Louisiana.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region early this
week producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to 
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the NW
and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big 
Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High 
pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through
Thu to support fresh to strong southerly winds across most of the
basin and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends north of the region, anchored by a 1031 mb high 
pressure area located east of Bermuda. A relatively tight pressure
gradient persists between the ridge and the Colombian low. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass confirmed that this pattern continues
to support strong to near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia.
Recent observations also indicate fresh to strong E winds along the
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within the strongest winds off Colombia,
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Seas
of 3 to 5 ft are evident in the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf 
of Honduras where seas of 5 to 7 ft are observed. Patches of low level
moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across
the region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds
and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the 
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the 
Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Large E swell will continue to impact
the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the 
week, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will 
again build N of the Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the week 
to bring a significantly strengthen in the trade wind flow and 
building seas across most of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N44W to 25N60W, where
it is dissipating toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are active northeast of the 
Turks and Caicos Islands and east of the southern Bahamas to the 
north of the dissipating front. A 1031 mb high pressure is 
centered east of Bermuda near 32N57W. This pattern is supporting 
fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 27N and west of 50W, with 
8 to 11 ft seas in NE to E swell. Farther east, a 1008 mb low 
pressure is centered NW of the Canary Islands near 31N21W. A band 
of showers and thunderstorms is just N of the low center affecting
the waters from 30N to 33N between 17W and 28W. Part of this 
convective activity reaches the Madeira Islands. Fresh to strong 
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are also noted on the northern 
semicircle of the low center. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate to rough seas dominate the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located E of Bermuda 
will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon. As a result,
winds and seas will diminish across the forecast region. However,
an area fresh to strong E winds will persist along the southern 
periphery of the associated ridge affecting mainly the waters S of
25N through Mon night into Tue. At that time, a cold front will 
move off the SE United States coast and weaken quickly across the 
far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then build again 
across the region Wed night through Thu night, bringing an 
increase in winds and seas mainly across the south waters.

$$
GR