Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;113469
AXNT20 KNHC 031719
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 06N19W. 
The ITCZ continues westward to 05N30W to 02N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 07N between 10W and 
13W, and near 06N21W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough persists over the western Gulf of Mexico and extends from
a 1018 mb low pressure located near 24N96W to the central Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near the
trough axis. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates fresh 
to strong winds across the southeast and south-central Gulf. These
winds are along the southern periphery of a very strong high 
pressure of 1040 mb located over the SE of the United States. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf, and south of 25N E of 92W, with 
seas to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 
ft. As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is entering the northern Gulf
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building in over the southeastern
United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over 
the S Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return flow will 
set up in the western Gulf through Wed, accompanied by rough seas 
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold 
front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, then stall over the 
northern Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE winds 
over the northwestern Caribbean and across the Windward Passage, 
between strong high pressure well north of the region, and lower 
pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also 
noted off Colombia, and the convergence of these winds are 
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along 
the monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica, and also across the
offshore waters of Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are evident 
across the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas
over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through
Wed night. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, 
allowing winds and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE 
winds will persist south of Cuba and near Cayman Islands into 
Sat. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
will pulse off Colombia into Sat. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 
to 10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of cold fronts continue to move across the western
Atlantic while the remainder of the forecast area remains under
the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure located near the Azores.
This pattern is supporting mostly fresh to strong NE to E winds 
to the east of 60W along with 7 to 10 ft seas based on altimeter
data. A cold front extends from 31N65W to the SE Bahamas. A pre-
frontal trough stretches from 24N64W to the Mona Passage. A few 
showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front over Haiti 
and off the north coast of Hispaniola, and also along the frontal 
boundary. Farther west, another reinforcing cold front extends 
from SE of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas are associated with these 
fronts. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will merge and reach 
from 31N55W to central Cuba by tonight, from 28N55W to just N of 
Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. Fresh 
to strong and rough seas will follow the front south of 22N 
through mid week. A trough will follow the reinforcing front 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Wed, followed by 
fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell, north of 28N. 
High pressure will build across the waters north of 26N Thu, ahead
of another cold front off northeast Florida. Looking ahead, the 
front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by Fri 
night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat. 

$$
GR