Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;875263
AXNT20 KNHC 020614
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat May 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
extends across northern Florida to Cedar Key then stalls across
the NE Gulf to a 1005 mb low offshore Texas near 27N94W and then 
transitions back to a cold front that continues SW to NE Mexico
near 24N98W. The front is supporting scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the western portion. 
Winds are increasing behind the front with fresh to strong out of
the NE, developing frequent gusts to gale-force, and building 
seas. By Sat morning, the front is forecast to extend from 
northern Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south 
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front 
will continue to be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast
winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico by Sat 
morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat afternoon and night. Frequent 
gusts to gale-force are also forecast in the NW Gulf, including in
the coastal waters. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the 
strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Marine conditions should 
significantly improve early next week.

Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 00N to
13N with an axis near 28W, moving W at around 10 kt. This wave is
encompassed within a thick Saharan Air Layer with significant dry
air and an otherwise hostile environment preventing any sort of 
deep convection. However, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is confined to the southern portion of the wave near
the ITCZ from 04S to 04N between 24W and 39W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 02N15W
to 02N25W then resumes near 02N32W and continues to 01N50W. 
For information on convection see the Tropical Waves section
above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on 
a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A strong late-season cold front extends across northern Florida 
to Cedar Key then stalls across the NE Gulf to a 1005 mb low 
offshore Texas near 27N94W and then transitions back to a cold 
front that continues SW to NE Mexico near 24N98W. The front is 
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly
along the western portion. Winds are increasing behind the front 
with fresh to strong out of the NE, developing frequent gusts to 
gale-force, and building seas. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are 
near the Yucatan Peninsula, with gentle to moderate SE-S winds 
elsewhere ahead of the front. Areas of smoke due to agricultural 
and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 
to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and 
northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, by Sat morning, the front will extend from 
northern Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south 
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front 
will continue to be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast
winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico by Sat 
morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat afternoon and night. Frequent 
gusts to gale-force are also forecast in the NW Gulf, including in
the coastal waters. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the 
strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Marine conditions should 
significantly improve early next week. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure E of the SE 
Bahamas and a 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is 
sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia and the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in these areas. Fresh to 
locally strong E winds are also ongoing N of Honduras in the 
vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf of Honduras, where 
seas are moderate to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trades 
prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for light to 
gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Otherwise, scattered moderate 
convection is occurring across the Nicaragua, Panama and Costa 
Rica offshore waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to 
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, 
reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and
in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Mon. This will slight 
weaken the pressure gradient and winds across the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to NE Florida. Over 
the central subtropical waters, a second cold front extends from 
31N36W to 27N54W. Ahead of it, a surface trough extends from 
30N28W to 21N55W to 20N63W. A 1021 mb high is W of the Canary
Islands extending a broad ridge to remaining central and SW
subtropical waters. Scatterometer data show moderate or weaker
winds associated with these features, which is maintaining
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will move eastward across
the north waters through Sat while dissipating. The trough will 
persist on Sat and then weaken. Another cold front will move off 
the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N71W to 
South Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. A weak low pressure 
may develop along the front at that time. Fresh to strong winds 
will precede the front on Sat. Mainly fresh northeast to east 
winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough 
seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and 
Tue night with improving marine conditions through the middle of 
next week.

$$
Ramos