Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1448

   Mesoscale Discussion 1448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Montana and western North
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

   Valid 272057Z - 272230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across far eastern Montana into
   western ND, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds,
   and perhaps a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening along an effective warm front
   extending east-southeastward from eastern MT into western ND, and
   isolated convective initiation is underway over Wibaux County MT.
   Regional VWP shows ample low-level hodograph curvature associated
   with backed surface winds beneath a plume of strong low-level
   warm-air advection. Additionally, diurnal heating along the boundary
   has yielded moderate surface-based instability. These factors, along
   with around 50 kt of effective shear, could support a couple
   semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
   concern, though the favorable low-level hodograph curvature could
   support a tornado threat as well. 

   A watch will eventually be needed into western North Dakota for the
   above-mentioned severe risk and for severe storms tracking eastward
   out of eastern Montana.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46200368 46610441 47130482 47600479 47860461 48130421
               48070393 47910348 47450292 47040265 46360279 46120317
               46200368