Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1369

   Mesoscale Discussion 1369
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of NE into far southeast SD...northwest
   IA...and far southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

   Valid 220125Z - 220300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Training cells are ongoing early this evening across
   south-central into eastern NE along and south of a front. The
   downstream 00Z sounding from OAX shows generally poor mid-level
   lapse rates, with a long/skinny MLCAPE profile. Still, enough
   low-level and deep-layer shear remains present to support organized
   convection, including the potential for supercells. Any thunderstorm
   which can remain at least semi-discrete should have some hail
   threat, even with the poor lapse rates aloft and associated warm
   mid-level temperatures. An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds
   may also continue, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a
   small bowing cluster this evening in tandem with a gradually
   strengthening low-level jet. The overall tornado threat may be
   tempered by continued messy storm modes, although low-level shear
   should gradually increase this evening. Depending on convective
   trends, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
   may be warranted across parts of central/eastern NE.

   ..Gleason.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40850119 41829868 42139825 42749832 43089800 43539667
               43809530 43719471 43079458 42569486 41539634 40529860
               40020038 40030113 40310131 40850119