Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1367

   Mesoscale Discussion 1367
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern NE into southeast
   SD...northwest IA...and southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

   Valid 212318Z - 220045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in
   central/northeast Nebraska may pose an isolated threat for severe
   wind in the short term. Other strong to severe thunderstorms in and
   near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 should have some hail/wind threat
   as well.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing early this
   evening across central into northeast NE. Although this activity is
   occurring in a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment
   along/near a surface front, it has struggled to
   intensify/consolidate thus far. There still appears to be some
   chance for this cluster to become more organized this evening as a
   modest south-southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens over
   the central Plains and mid MO Valley. If further strengthening of
   this activity can occur, then severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph
   would likely be the main threat as these thunderstorms spread
   generally east-northeastward this evening. Other, more cellular
   thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast SD to the north of the
   front. Isolated hail and strong to locally severe winds may occur
   with this convection as well. The tornado threat remains less clear
   owing to messy storm modes. Still, some increase in low-level shear
   is anticipated this evening, and any persistent supercell along/near
   the surface front could pose some threat for a tornado.

   ..Gleason.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40819975 42359986 42869975 43819761 44189632 44149570
               43899533 43139531 42609560 40989847 40679941 40819975