Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1353

   Mesoscale Discussion 1353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...the Four Corners area to far southern WY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 211710Z - 211915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
   this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms develop off the higher
   terrain of the eastern Utah/northeast Arizona vicinity and spread
   east-northeast. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued
   for parts of the region by 18-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...Morning convection has finally weakened but has
   maintained a plume of cloudiness that is limiting surface-based
   destabilization over parts of western CO. Surrounding this remnant
   convection, destabilization is well underway northeast of the
   Mogollon Rim to the higher terrain of central UT. Incipient
   thunderstorm development is occurring over the higher terrain and
   will likely increase in coverage through the afternoon as a minor
   shortwave trough over NV shifts east-northeast.

   Relatively buoyant thermodynamic profiles are expected as MLCAPE
   increases to 1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating. Substantial speed shear
   within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime should yield an
   elongated hodograph, favorable for splitting supercell structures.
   Large hail to around 2 inches in diameter will be possible, although
   potential for greater magnitudes may be tempered by relatively warm
   upper-level temperatures. The steepening low-level lapse rate
   environment will support potential for severe wind gusts of 55-70
   mph, but with more cellular coverage this threat may tend to remain
   isolated.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

   LAT...LON   41640721 40720755 39030796 37040769 36260815 35791005
               36601224 38431223 40001154 41880881 42040844 41640721